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Twisted logic can devise very profitable
trading strategies. For example, we're taught early in our
careers to buy breakouts and sell breakdowns, but market contrarians
pay their bills doing the exact opposite. They wait for a
move to fail and then sell the breakout or buy the breakdown.
These mind-bending tactics don't end there. Many smart traders
take it one step further and buy when the failure fails.
Let's back up and examine this way of
thinking one step at a time. Most of us follow a common path
-- we pile into stocks because they break out of resistance,
but contrarians know exactly how you'll react when your pretty
breakout drops like a rock. So, they guess where your stops
are hidden and enter short sales at the same price to capitalize
on your misfortune.
Now, twist your brain a little more
and take this reasoning to the next level. The stock breaks
out
you sit on your hands. The stock fails the breakout
you
wait and do nothing. But, when the stock jumps back above
the breakout price
you buy. Got it?
Modern markets try to burn everyone
before they launch definable trends. My friend Bo Yoder calls
this action a "rinse job." Whether through manipulation
or mechanics, price gets drawn like a magnet through common
support and resistance levels. This whipsaw movement cleans
out the stops before a market ramps higher or lower. Not a
pleasant experience when you're caught holding the bag but
an excellent opportunity when you come off the sidelines.
How does price action "know"
where the stops are hidden? The answer is quite devious. Retail
traders are well versed in the basics of technical analysis.
They take positions using common methods already deconstructed
by the smart money. The result: Price passes through support
and resistance far more easily than in the past. But, keep
your chin up. Whenever the market comes up with a new way
to take your money, it also gives you a new way to make it.
eSignal
advanced charting makes it easy to find failed failures and
take advantage of hidden trading opportunities. Let's look
at two examples.
We made the case for a Concord bounce
play. Using eSignal's Fibonacci tool, we drew intersections
at two key retracements. Notice how this valuable advanced
charting feature highlights the exact price at each level.
Using this tool, we predicted CEFT would reverse near 29 and
start a run back toward its high. But, things didn't work
out that way. Four days later, CEFT gapped down through the
entry target and made a mad dash to the 50-day moving average.
It tagged it early in the session and reversed, closing back
above 29. The next morning, price gapped above the entry target
and completed an Abandoned Baby, a significant one-bar reversal
pattern. CEFT then rallied to test the old high.
Fortunately,
the gap down should have kept swing traders on the sidelines.
Most effective trading strategies limit entries after unusual
gaps. But, those already positioned had stops in the middle
of that rinse job because it looked like a safe level on the
price chart. There's a diabolical trading lesson here: Safe
prices are also the most dangerous ones. How twisted is that?
We looked at the intraday bars of the
last 2 trading days in the red circle and predicted an immediate
Oxford Health Plan breakout. Wrong! OHP decided to go in the
opposite direction on the same day. See how the razor-sharp
eSignal charts expose a 2-day rinse job that fills the gap
-- before the price finally jumps back into the resistance
line.
What happened next is even more
interesting. OHP spent a week gathering into a tight little
ball. In fact, the last bar before the breakout printed an
"NR7," the swing trader's term for the narrowest
range bar of the last 7 bars. This quiet signal often precedes
major price expansion and is a telltale sign of a market ready
to move.
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